The California economy is looking up in a number of dimensions lately: the Facebook IPO (and increased tax collections); the housing market bottoming (along with mortgage rates); a new “war for talent” in Silicon Valley; and a Governor who knows what he’s doing (even if you don’t like it).
But the biggest gift to the recovery in the world’s eighth largest economy may be the unsettled republican Presidential primary field. If Mitt Romney doesn’t win his erstwhile “home state” Michigan, or Arizona on February 28, then we could go on to a two- or three-way split decision on Super Tuesday among the Midwestern and Southern states. We have got ourselves a real horse race just in time for the Kentucky Derby!
So if among Sanctum Santorum, Mobility Mitt, Newt the Coot and RuePaul, we still have no clear front-runner in May, and all of the Final Four keep pledging to go “all the way” (with or without birth control), we could find that the race comes down to California in the first week in June, for the first time in ages.
What a bonanza for the California economy: all the campaign advertising and SuperPAC splurging on local TV and radio; all the plane-loads of reporters scrambling across the state trying to cover the biggest gaffes; all the Cable TV pundit shows relocating here for the week to set up ESPN-like “Game Day” sets in various Republican enclaves (how would Atherton handle the traffic?). Not to mention the spending on food and drink, the hotel bookings and short-term house rentals, the suspiciously well-timed Sarah Palin bus tour of the Central Valley, and the sheer novelty appeal of candidates coming out here looking for votes and not just money. This could be bigger than Jeremy Lin!
Of course, a continued improvement in the California economy would undercut a central premise of the Republican campaign narrative – namely, that we are heading for a Grecian economic meltdown if Obama is re-elected. But never mind, they can always fall back on the new theme that Obama is a closet French (of course) revolutionary who would off the heads of anyone who doesn’t use contraceptives. Somehow, one doubts that line will play in California. They’ll have to come up with something new, just for us!
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